Unexpected frequency of the pathogenic AR CAG repeat expansion in the general population

CAG repeat expansions in exon 1 of the AR gene on the X chromosome cause spinal and bulbar muscular atrophy, a male-specific progressive neuromuscular disorder associated with a variety of extra-neurological symptoms. The disease has a reported male prevalence of approximately 1:30 000 or less, but the AR repeat expansion frequency is unknown. We established a pipeline, which combines the use of the ExpansionHunter tool and visual validation, to detect AR CAG expansion on whole-genome sequencing data, benchmarked it to fragment PCR sizing, and applied it to 74 277 unrelated individuals from four large cohorts. Our pipeline showed sensitivity of 100% [95% confidence interval (CI) 90.8-100%], specificity of 99% (95% CI 94.2-99.7%), and a positive predictive value of 97.4% (95% CI 84.4-99.6%). We found the mutation frequency to be 1:3182 (95% CI 1:2309-1:4386, n = 117 734) X chromosomes-10 times more frequent than the reported disease prevalence. Modelling using the novel mutation frequency led to estimate disease prevalence of 1:6887 males, more than four times more frequent than the reported disease prevalence. This discrepancy is possibly due to underdiagnosis of this neuromuscular condition, reduced penetrance, and/or pleomorphic clinical manifestations.