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Composite scoring--methods and predictive validity: insights from the Framingham Study.

W B Kannel1, D L McGee

  • 1Section of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiology, Boston University Medical Center, MA 02118.

Health Services Research
|October 1, 1987
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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Cardiovascular disease risk can be accurately predicted using established risk factors and simple tests. Multivariate risk profiles identify high-risk individuals for targeted prevention strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Cardiovascular Medicine

Background:

  • The risk factor concept for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well-established.
  • Epidemiologic research has demonstrated the predictability of CVD events.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the established concept of cardiovascular disease risk factors.
  • To emphasize the utility of multivariate risk profiles for predicting CVD events.
  • To discuss methods for convenient risk assessment in clinical and public health settings.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing data from Framingham and other epidemiologic studies.
  • Developing multivariate cardiovascular risk profiles from standard office procedures and laboratory tests.
  • Employing tools like handbooks, calculators, and software for risk assessment.

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Main Results:

  • Cardiovascular disease risk can be estimated over a 20-30 fold range.
  • Approximately half of CVD events occur in the highest-risk tenth of the population.
  • Multivariate risk profiles demonstrate reasonable efficiency in predicting major cardiovascular events, even in older individuals.

Conclusions:

  • Established risk factors and multivariate profiles effectively predict atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.
  • Risk assessment tools can be conveniently implemented in various healthcare settings.
  • Further improvements in prediction may be achieved with detailed lipid information and additional clinical data.