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Across-model spread and shrinking in predicting peatland carbon dynamics under global change
Enqing Hou1,2, Shuang Ma1,3, Yuanyuan Huang4
1Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA.
Global Change Biology
|February 17, 2023
Summary
Discrepancies in land carbon models stem from structural and parameter differences. A novel matrix approach precisely identified these sources, enabling model standardization for improved climate change prediction.
Area of Science:
- Earth and Environmental Sciences
- Climate Science
- Ecosystem Dynamics
Background:
- Model intercomparison projects reveal significant discrepancies in simulating land carbon dynamics, hindering accurate climate change predictions.
- Identifying the sources of this across-model spread is crucial for advancing climate modeling.
- Peatlands are critical ecosystems for carbon cycling, yet their dynamics are poorly constrained in current models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analytically pinpoint the sources of across-model spread in transient peatland carbon dynamics.
- To develop a standardized methodology for assessing model discrepancies using a matrix approach.
- To investigate the influence of atmospheric CO2 and temperature on peatland carbon cycling across multiple land models.
Main Methods:
- A novel matrix approach was employed, converting the carbon cycle modules of eight diverse land models into matrix models.
- A factorial combination of two atmospheric CO2 levels and five temperature levels was used to drive the matrix models.
- Model parameters were sequentially standardized based on identified sources of spread to reduce simulation discrepancies.
Main Results:
- Across-model spread in ecosystem carbon storage was primarily driven by differences in baseline carbon residence time.
- Net ecosystem production (NEP) overestimation was mainly attributed to inter-model differences in environmental scalars.
- Models showed varied responses to warming and elevated CO2, with discrepancies linked to decomposition sensitivity and net primary production.
Conclusions:
- The study successfully traced the sources of across-model spread in transient carbon dynamics to specific model structures and parameters.
- Standardizing model parameters significantly reduced simulated ecosystem carbon storage and NEP, highlighting the impact of identified discrepancies.
- The findings provide a framework for improving the accuracy and reliability of land carbon models for climate change research.
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