Trends in assault-related hospitalizations during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Violence remains a priority issue in the United States (US) requiring public health input to discern the magnitude and impact of violence on the health system. Concerns over violence and the injuries resulting from violence have increased following the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic which exacerbated an array of individual and economic stressors related to violence including increased unemployment, alcohol intake, social isolation, anxiety and panic and decreased access to health services. The aim of this study was to analyze the trends in violence-related injuries in the state of Illinois during the SARS-CoV-2 lockdown periods and post-lockdown in order to inform future public health policy.

Outpatient and inpatient assault related injuries treated in Illinois hospitals from 2016 through March 2022 were analyzed. Segmented regression models evaluating change in time trends were adjusted for seasonality, serial correlation, overall trend and economic variables.

The annual rate of assault related hospitalizations per one million Illinois residents decreased from 3857.8 pre-pandemic to 3458.7 pandemic period. However, during the pandemic there was an increase in deaths and in the proportion of injuries involving open wounds, internal injuries, and fractures, while there was a reduction in less serious injuries. Segmented regression time series models demonstrated significant increase in firearm violence in all four pandemic periods examined. Firearm violence increased particularly in subgroups including African-American victims, 15-34-year-olds, and Chicago residents.

During SARS-CoV-2, we saw an overall reduction in assault related hospitalization, however, findings demonstrated an increase in serious injuries which may be associated with social and economic stressors of the pandemic, increased gun-violence while decrease in less serious injuries may be linked to hospital avoidance for non-lethal injuries during the peak waves of the pandemic. Our findings have implications for ongoing surveillance, service planning and management of the increased gunshot and penetrating assault cases and further demonstrate the need for public health input into the violence epidemic in the US.