On the origin of patterns of temperature-dependent sex determination

Species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) exhibit significant variation in the relationship between incubation temperatures and the sex ratios they produce, making this an ideal system for comparing processes producing variation above and below the species level. Furthermore, a deeper mechanistic understanding of TSD macro- and microevolution may help reveal the currently unknown adaptive significance of this variation or of TSD as a whole. Here, we probe these topics by examining the evolutionary dynamics of this sex-determining mechanism in turtles. Our ancestral state reconstructions of discrete patterns of TSD suggest that producing females at cool incubation temperatures is derived and potentially adaptive. However, the ecological irrelevance of these cool temperatures and a strong genetic correlation across the sex-ratio reaction norm in Chelydra serpentina both contradict this interpretation. We further find the phenotypic consequence of this genetic correlation in C. serpentina reflected across all turtle species, suggesting that a single genetic architecture underlies both intra- and interspecific variation in TSD in this clade. This correlated architecture can explain the macroevolutionary origin of discrete TSD patterns without assigning cool-temperature female production an adaptive value. However, this architecture may also constrain adaptive microevolutionary responses to ongoing climate change.