Projections of fire emissions and the consequent impacts on air quality under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

Fire is a major source of atmospheric aerosols and trace gases. Projection of future fire activities is challenging due to the joint impacts of climate, vegetation, and human activities. Here, we project global changes of fire-induced particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃) under 1.5 °C/2 °C warming using a climate-chemistry-vegetation coupled model in combination with site-level and satellite-based observations. Compared to the present day, fire emissions of varied air pollutants increase by 10.0%-15.4% at the 1.5 °C warming period and 15.1%-22.5% at the 2 °C warming period, with the most significant enhancements in Amazon, southern Africa, and boreal Eurasia. The warmer climate promotes fuel dryness and the higher leaf area index increases fuel availability, leading to escalated fire flammability globally. However, moderate declines in fire emissions are predicted over the Sahel region, because the higher population density increases fire suppressions and consequently inhibits fire activities over central Africa. Following the changes in fire emissions, the population-weighted exposure to fire PM_2.5 increases by 5.1% under 1.5 °C warming and 13.0% under 2 °C warming. Meanwhile, the exposure to fire O₃ enhances by 10.2% and 16.0% in response to global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively. As a result, limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 °C can greatly reduce the risks of exposure to fire-induced air pollution compared to 2 °C.