Persistent decadal differences in plant communities assembled under contrasting climate conditions

Plant community assembly outcomes can be contingent upon establishment year (year effects) due to variations in the environment. Stochastic events such as interannual variability in climate, particularly in the first year of community assembly, contribute to unpredictable community outcomes over the short term, but less is known about whether year effects produce transient or persistent states on a decadal timescale. To test for short-term (5-year) and persistent (decadal) effects of establishment year climate on community assembly outcomes, we restored prairie in an agricultural field using the same methods in four different years (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) that captured a wide range of initial (planting) year climate conditions. Species composition was measured for 5 years in all four restored prairies and for 9 and 11 years in the two oldest restored prairies established under average precipitation and extreme drought conditions. The composition of the four assembled communities showed large and significant differences in the first year of restoration, followed by dynamic change over time along a similar trajectory due to a temporary flush of annual volunteer species. Sown perennial species eventually came to dominate all communities, but communities remained distinct from each other in year five. Precipitation in June and July of the establishment year explained short-term coarse community metrics (i.e., species richness and grass/forb cover), with wet establishment years resulting in a higher cover of grasses and dry establishment years resulting in a higher cover of forbs in restored communities. Short-term differences in community composition, species richness, and grass/forb cover in restorations established under average precipitation and drought conditions persisted for 9-11 years, with low interannual variability in the composition of each prairie over the long term, indicating persistently different states on a decadal timescale. Thus, year effects resulting from stochastic variation in climate can have decadal effects on community assembly outcomes.