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Identification of high-risk patients for development of type B aortic dissection based on novel morphological
Da Li1,2, Jiarong Wang3, Jichun Zhao3
1Department of Applied Mechanics, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Insights
Predicting sporadic type B aortic dissection (TBAD) is challenging. New morphological parameters identified via CT angiography can help identify high-risk patients for TBAD, improving early detection and management.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Imaging
- Thoracic Surgery
- Radiology
Background:
- Sporadic type B aortic dissection (TBAD) prediction remains a clinical challenge.
- Accurate risk stratification is crucial for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes.
- Morphological assessment via computed tomography angiography (CTA) offers potential for risk identification.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify high-risk patients for sporadic type B aortic dissection (TBAD) development.
- To establish a novel prediction model based on specific morphological parameters.
- To compare the predictive performance of the new model against existing methods.
Main Methods:
- A propensity-score-matched case-control study utilizing CTA data from acute TBAD patients and controls.
- Multivariate regression analysis to determine odds ratios (aOR) and confidence intervals (CI) for morphological parameters.
- Evaluation of discriminant and reclassification abilities of the developed prediction model.
Main Results:
- Key morphological predictors identified: degree of question mark, brachiocephalic trunk diameter and angle, aortic root diameter, and aortic width.
- A novel prediction model demonstrated superior discriminant ability (c-index 0.78 vs. 0.67, p = .03).
- The new model significantly improved reclassification of TBAD patients (NRI 0.16, p = .02).
Conclusions:
- Morphological parameters from CTA, including aortic root and brachiocephalic trunk dimensions and angles, are significant predictors of TBAD.
- A new prediction model incorporating these features enhances the identification of high-risk individuals for TBAD.
- These findings support the use of detailed morphological analysis for proactive TBAD risk assessment.
Abstract:
Background: Predicting the development of sporadic type B aortic dissection (TBAD) always remains a difficult issue. This study aimed to identify high-risk patients for development of TBAD based on morphological parameters. Methods: This propensity-score-matched case-control study collected and reconstructed the computed tomography angiography of acute TBAD patients and hospital-based control participants without aortic dissection from January 2013 to December 2016. Multivariate regression analysis was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Discriminant and reclassification abilities were compared between our model and a previously established model. Results: Our study included 76 acute TBAD patients and 79 control patients (48 cases and 48 controls after propensity-score matching). The degree of question mark (aOR 1.07, 95% CI 1.04-1.11), brachiocephalic trunk diameter (aOR 1.49, 95% CI 1.20-1.85), brachiocephalic trunk angle (aOR 0.97, 95% CI 0.94-0.99), aortic root diameter (aOR 1.31, 95% CI 1.15-1.48), and aortic width (aOR 1.12, 95% CI 1.07-1.17) were associated with a significantly increased risk of TBAD formation. Similar findings were observed in the propensity-score matching and sensitivity analysis only including hyperacute TBAD patients. A novel prediction model was established based on the aforementioned parameters. The new model showed significantly improved discriminant ability compared with the previously established model (c-index 0.78 [95% CI 0.71-0.85] vs. 0.67 [95% CI 0.58-0.75], p = .03), driven by increased reclassification ability in identifying TBAD patients (NRI for events 0.16, 95% CI 0.02-0.30, p = .02). Conclusion: Morphological predictors, including the degree of question mark, aortic width, aortic root diameter, brachiocephalic trunk angle, and brachiocephalic trunk diameter, may be used to identify patients at high risk of TBAD.
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