Generalized durative event detection on social media

Given the recent availability of large volumes of social media discussions, finding temporal unusual phenomena, which can be called events, from such data is of great interest. Previous works on social media event detection either assume a specific type of event, or assume certain behavior of observed variables. In this paper, we propose a general method for event detection on social media that makes few assumptions. The main assumption we make is that when an event occurs, affected semantic aspects will behave differently from their usual behavior, for a sustained period. We generalize the representation of time units based on word embeddings of social media text, and propose an algorithm to detect durative events in time series in a general sense. In addition, we also provide an incremental version of the algorithm for the purpose of real-time detection. We test our approaches on synthetic data and two real-world tasks. With the synthetic dataset, we compare the performance of retrospective and incremental versions of the algorithm. In the first real-world task, we use a novel setting to test if our method and baseline methods can exhaustively catch all real-world news in the test period. The evaluation results show that when the event is quite unusual with regard to the base social media discussion, it can be captured more effectively with our method. In the second real-world task, we use the event captured to help improve the accuracy of stock market movement prediction. We show that our event-based approach has a clear advantage compared to other ways of adding social media information.