Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity in China Using Catalytic Models Based on Serological Data

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Infectious Disease Modeling
• Public Health

Background:

• Global dengue incidence has surged, with rapid spread in China since 2000.
• Understanding dengue transmission dynamics in China is crucial for effective control.
• Serological data offers insights into both symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue infections.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze age-specific serological dengue data in China from 1980-2021.
• To estimate dengue transmission intensity, including force of infection and basic reproduction number (R0).
• To identify geographical and age-related patterns in dengue transmission.

Main Methods:

• Conducted a literature search to gather 23 relevant studies with age-specific serological dengue data.
• Applied four catalytic models to estimate transmission parameters.
• Utilized the deviation information criterion to differentiate transmission mechanisms.

Main Results:

• Dengue transmission intensity varied across different age groups in most populations studied.
• Antibody protection attenuation was observed in some study populations.
• The basic reproduction number (R0) for dengue in China ranged from 1.04 to 2.33.
• Transmission intensity generally decreased from coastal to inland and southern to northern areas.

Conclusions:

• Dengue transmission in China exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity.
• Estimated R0 values suggest ongoing transmission, necessitating continued public health interventions.
• Findings provide valuable data for developing targeted dengue control strategies in China.