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Impact of Reducing Intake of Red and Processed Meat on Colorectal Cancer Incidence in Germany 2020 to 2050-A
Tobias Niedermaier1, Thomas Gredner1, Michael Hoffmeister1
1Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), 69120 Heidelberg, Germany.
Background:
According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), there is sufficient evidence for the carcinogenicity of processed meat consumption in humans, specifically regarding colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Evidence for the carcinogenicity of red meat consumption is more limited but points in the same direction.
Methods:
A macro-simulation approach was used to calculate age- and sex-specific potential impact fractions in a 30-year period (2020-2050).
Aims:
We estimated numbers and proportions of future CRC cases preventable under different scenarios of reducing the intake of processed and red meat in the German population.
Results:
Eliminating processed meat intake could reduce the burden of CRC by approximately 205,000 cases in Germany (9.6%) in 2020-2050, 2/3 among males (145,000) and 1/3 among females (60,000). Without red meat intake, approximately 63,000 CRC cases could be avoided (2.9%), 39,000 among males and 24,000 among females. Reductions in the mean consumption of both processed and red meat by one or two servings (each 11 or 22 g) per day would be expected to reduce CRC case numbers by 68,000 (3.1%) and 140,000 (6.5%), respectively.
Conclusion:
A reduction in red and processed meat intake might substantially reduce the incidence of CRC in Germany. The means of achieving such a reduction might include price and taxation policies, food labeling, and clearer risk communication aiming to reduce individual intake.
Insights
Reducing processed and red meat intake could prevent thousands of colorectal cancer (CRC) cases in Germany. Dietary changes may significantly lower CRC incidence, highlighting public health strategies.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Cancer Research
Background:
- International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) classifies processed meat as a human carcinogen, linked to colorectal cancer (CRC).
- Limited evidence suggests red meat consumption may also increase CRC risk.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the number and proportion of future CRC cases in Germany preventable by reducing processed and red meat consumption.
- To analyze potential CRC case reductions under various dietary intake scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a macro-simulation approach to calculate age- and sex-specific potential impact fractions.
- Modeled impacts over a 30-year period (2020-2050) for the German population.
Main Results:
- Eliminating processed meat could prevent approximately 205,000 CRC cases (9.6%) by 2050.
- Avoiding red meat entirely could avert around 63,000 CRC cases (2.9%).
- Reducing intake by 1-2 servings/day of processed and red meat could lower CRC cases by 68,000-140,000.
Conclusions:
- Substantial reductions in CRC incidence in Germany are possible through decreased red and processed meat consumption.
- Policy interventions like price adjustments, taxation, clear food labeling, and risk communication are recommended to encourage reduced intake.
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