Understanding Covid-19 Mobility Through Human Capital: A Unified Causal Framework

Area of Science:

• Socioeconomics
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Workplace social distancing is crucial for mitigating infectious disease spread, such as COVID-19.
• Understanding factors influencing adherence to social distancing is vital for effective public health strategies.
• Educational attainment is a potential determinant of health-related behaviors, including workplace safety practices.

Purpose of the Study:

• To determine the causal effect of educational human capital on workplace social distancing behavior in Turkey.
• To analyze how educational disparities influence mobility patterns and COVID-19 transmission at the district level.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a unified causal framework with domain knowledge, theory-justified constraints, and causal graph discovery.
• Employed machine learning prediction algorithms, instrumental variables for latent confounding, and Heckman's model for selection bias.
• Analyzed district-level data from Turkey spanning April 2020 to February 2021.

Main Results:

• Higher levels of educational human capital causally correlate with increased social distancing at the workplace.
• Educational attainment significantly reduces workplace mobility, potentially mediated by employment effects.
• Less educated regions exhibit higher workplace mobility, leading to increased COVID-19 infection rates.

Conclusions:

• Educational human capital is a key factor in enabling workplace social distancing and reducing COVID-19 transmission.
• Disparities in education exacerbate pandemic inequalities, with less educated populations in developing countries being particularly vulnerable.
• Public health interventions must address educational disparities to mitigate the unequal impact of pandemics.