Modeling the progression of Type 2 diabetes with underlying obesity

Environmentally induced or epigenetic-related beta-cell dysfunction and insulin resistance play a critical role in the progression to diabetes. We developed a mathematical modeling framework capable of studying the progression to diabetes incorporating various diabetogenic factors. Considering the heightened risk of beta-cell defects induced by obesity, we focused on the obesity-diabetes model to further investigate the influence of obesity on beta-cell function and glucose regulation. The model characterizes individualized glucose and insulin dynamics over the span of a lifetime. We then fit the model to the longitudinal data of the Pima Indian population, which captures both the fluctuations and long-term trends of glucose levels. As predicted, controlling or eradicating the obesity-related factor can alleviate, postpone, or even reverse diabetes. Furthermore, our results reveal that distinct abnormalities of beta-cell function and levels of insulin resistance among individuals contribute to different risks of diabetes. This study may encourage precise interventions to prevent diabetes and facilitate individualized patient treatment.