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Market prediction using machine learning based on social media specific features.

Satoshi Sekioka1, Ryo Hatano1, Hiroyuki Nishiyama1

  • 1Department of Industrial Administration, Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo University of Science, 2641 Yamazaki, Noda Chiba, Japan.

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Summary

Social media sentiment analysis using Sentence-BERT and LightGBM can predict cryptocurrency price changes. Linguistic features from tweets improve the accuracy of forecasting sudden market movements.

Keywords:
CryptocurrencyMachine learningNatural language processing

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Area of Science:

  • Computational Finance
  • Natural Language Processing
  • Machine Learning

Background:

  • Social media sentiment significantly impacts financial markets, including virtual currencies.
  • Predicting sudden price changes in cryptocurrencies remains a challenge.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the efficacy of Twitter data and natural language expressions for predicting virtual currency market information.
  • To develop a model for forecasting sudden price changes (drops, rises, or stability) in cryptocurrencies.

Main Methods:

  • Feature extraction from tweets using Sentence-BERT.
  • Training a LightGBM classifier with these linguistic features.
  • Classification task with three labels: sudden drop, sudden rise, or no sudden change.

Main Results:

  • Linguistic features derived from tweets enhance the prediction of cryptocurrency price changes.
  • The proposed method demonstrates the advantage of using natural language expressions for market trend prediction.

Conclusions:

  • Social media sentiment analysis is a valuable tool for understanding and predicting cryptocurrency market dynamics.
  • Integrating linguistic features into machine learning models improves the accuracy of financial market forecasting.