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Forty-seven year trend of measles in Iran: An interrupted time series analysis

Yousef Alimohamadi1, Mojtaba Sepandi1

  • 1Health Research Center, Life Style Institute Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences Tehran Iran.

Health Science Reports
|February 28, 2023
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Measles cases in Iran initially rose, then significantly decreased after the 1978 revolution. The COVID-19 pandemic saw a subsequent rise in measles incidence, highlighting the impact of societal events on disease trends.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Infectious Diseases

Background:

  • Measles is an acute viral illness presenting with rash, and potential complications like pneumonia, diarrhea, and CNS disturbances.
  • Understanding measles trends is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the incidence of measles in Iran before and after the 1978 revolution.
  • To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on measles trends in Iran.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized annual data on confirmed measles cases in Iran from 1974 to 2021, sourced from the WHO.
  • Employed an interrupted time series model to evaluate the influence of key events on measles incidence.

Main Results:

  • Measles cases showed an increasing trend until 1980.
  • A significant decrease in new measles cases was observed post-1978 revolution (-845 cases).
  • Following the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant increase in measles cases occurred (41 cases).

Conclusions:

  • Societal and health-related events significantly influence measles incidence.
  • Sustaining high vaccination coverage and vaccinating immigrant populations can mitigate measles trend fluctuations.
Keywords:
Iraninterrupted time series analysismeasles

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