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Updated: Aug 8, 2025
05:37
An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
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Predictive heuristic control: Inferring risks from heterogeneous nowcast accuracy.
Job Augustijn van der Werf1, Zoran Kapelan1, Jeroen Gerardus Langeveld2
1Section of Sanitary Engineering, Water Management Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands
Summary
Real-time control (RTC) for urban drainage systems, using rainfall nowcasting, can reduce pollution. However, current nowcasting accuracy limits performance, risking worse outcomes than standard methods without careful algorithm selection.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Engineering
- Water Resource Management
- Urban Planning
Background:
- Urban drainage systems pose ecological and public health risks due to untreated wastewater discharge.
- Real-time control (RTC) augmented with rainfall nowcasting offers a strategy to mitigate these pollution loads.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the impact of rainfall nowcast accuracy on rule-based RTC (RB-RTC) performance in urban drainage.
- To evaluate the reliability of nowcast-informed RB-RTC procedures under real-world conditions.
Main Methods:
- Development and testing of novel RB-RTC procedures informed by rainfall nowcast data.
- Case study application in Rotterdam, Netherlands, comparing performance with perfect and real nowcast data.
- Analysis of nowcast accuracy, prediction consistency, and their correlation with RB-RTC effectiveness.
Main Results:
- Perfect nowcast data demonstrated up to 14.6% reduction in combined sewer overflow volumes.
- Real nowcast data accurately predicted the cessation of rainfall but underestimated rainfall intensity.
- Nowcast accuracy did not correlate with prediction consistency; real nowcast data risked operative deterioration for most tested procedures.
Conclusions:
- The effectiveness of nowcast-informed RB-RTC is highly dependent on the specific nowcasting algorithm's strengths and weaknesses.
- Understanding nowcast algorithm limitations is crucial for ensuring RB-RTC reliability and avoiding performance degradation.
- This research highlights the potential to infer risks from nowcast data, potentially reducing reliance on extensive modeling studies.
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