Ambient temperature and air pollution associations with suicide and homicide mortality in California: A statewide...

Higher ambient temperature and air pollution may contribute to increased risk of behaviors harmful to oneself or to others; however, quantitative evidence is limited. We examined the relationship of deaths due to suicide and homicide with temperature and air pollution in California-a state prone to high levels of both exposures.

California death certificates from 2014 to 2019 were used to identify deaths due to suicide and homicide. Residential data for decedents were used to assign exposure to daily temperature (maximum[T_max], minimum[T_min]) and daily average air pollution concentrations (particulate matter <10 μm[PM₁₀] and < 2.5 μm[PM_2.5], nitrogen dioxide[NO₂], ozone[O₃]). T_min served as a surrogate for nighttime temperature. A time-stratified case-crossover study design using conditional logistic regression was used to assess the effects of daily exposure to temperature and air pollutants on suicide and homicide mortality, adjusting for relative humidity. Effect modification by sex and age was assessed.

We observed 24,387 deaths due to suicide and 10,767 deaths due to homicide. We found a monotonic temperature association for both outcomes. A 5 °C increase in T_max at lag-2 and T_min at lag-0 was associated with 3.1 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.1 %-5.2 %) and 3.8 % (95%CI: 0.9 %-6.8 %) increased odds of death due to suicide, respectively. The increased odds of homicide mortality per 5 °C increase in T_max at lag-0 and T_min at lag-1 were 4.9 % (95%CI: 1.6 %-8.1 %) and 6.2 % (95%CI: 1.6 %-11.0 %), respectively. No air pollutant associations were statistically significant. Temperature associations were robust after adjustment for PM_2.5. Some temperature effects were larger among women for suicide and men for homicide mortality, and among those over age 65 years for both outcomes.

Risk of suicide and homicide mortality increases with increasing daily ambient temperatures. Findings have public health relevance given anticipated increases in temperatures due to global climate change.