Differentiated Thyroid Cancer in a Pediatric Population: Estimating the Risk of Recurrence and Evolution Over Time

Background Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the most common endocrine cancer during childhood, and the prognosis is usually good. The 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) pediatric guidelines for DTC classify patients into three categories (low, intermediate, and high) that represent the risk for persistent/recurrent disease. The "Dynamic Risk Stratification" (DRS) System showed that, in adults, reassessment of disease status during follow-up was a better predictor of disease status at the end of follow-up when compared to ATA risk stratification. This system is still not validated for the pediatric population with DTC. Our aim was to evaluate the usefulness of the DRS system in predicting DTC disease behaviour in this specific population. We also aimed to evaluate potential clinical-pathological factors associated with persistent disease at the end of follow-up. Methods A retrospective analysis of 39 pediatric patients (≤18 years) with DTC was conducted in our institution between 2007 and 2018, including 33 patients who had follow-up ≥ 12 months; these were classified into ATA risk groups and re-stratified according to their response to treatment at 12-24 months of follow-up. The associations between the ordinal variables of the baseline ATA risk group and the disease status re-evaluated 12-24 months after diagnosis (as per the DRS system) and at the end of follow-up were evaluated using a linear-by-linear association test. Gender, age at diagnosis, tumor size, multicentricity, extrathyroid extension, vascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, distant metastasis, and stimulated thyroglobulin (sTg) during the first RAI administration were evaluated as potential factors associated with persistent disease at 27 months after diagnosis using Firth's bias-reduced penalized-likelihood logistic regression. Results In this study, 39 patients were retrospectively analyzed, including 33 patients who had follow-ups ≥ 12 months with a median time of 56 (27-139) months who were classified in ATA risk groups and then re-stratified depending on their response to treatment between 12 and 24 months of follow-up. There was a statistically significant association between ATA risk groups and re-evaluation at 12 and 24 months (p=0.001) and between these two stratifications and the state of disease at final follow-up (p<0.001 for both). Factors with a statistically significant association with persistent disease at 27 months of follow-up were male sex, lymph node metastases at diagnosis, distant metastasis, extrathyroidal extension, and stimulated Tg values. Conclusions The assessment of the response to treatment between 12 and 24 months and at the end of follow-up refines the initial ATA risk stratification, confirming that dynamic risk evaluation is also helpful in the pediatric population.