Diffusion tensor imaging metrics associated with future disability in multiple sclerosis

The relationship between brain diffusion microstructural changes and disability in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains poorly understood. We aimed to explore the predictive value of microstructural properties in white (WM) and grey matter (GM), and identify areas associated with mid-term disability in MS patients. We studied 185 patients (71% female; 86% RRMS) with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), timed 25-foot walk (T25FW), nine-hole peg test (9HPT), and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) at two time-points. We used Lasso regression to analyse the predictive value of baseline WM fractional anisotropy and GM mean diffusivity, and to identify areas related to each outcome at 4.1 years follow-up. Motor performance was associated with WM (T25FW: RMSE = 0.524, R² = 0.304; 9HPT dominant hand: RMSE = 0.662, R² = 0.062; 9HPT non-dominant hand: RMSE = 0.649, R² = 0.139), and SDMT with GM diffusion metrics (RMSE = 0.772, R² = 0.186). Cingulum, longitudinal fasciculus, optic radiation, forceps minor and frontal aslant were the WM tracts most closely linked to motor dysfunction, and temporal and frontal cortex were relevant for cognition. Regional specificity related to clinical outcomes provide valuable information that can be used to develop more accurate predictive models that could improve therapeutic strategies.