Systolic Blood Pressure and Cardiovascular Risk in Normotensive Adults

To examine the association of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cardiovascular risk in normotensive adults.

This study analyzed data from 7 prospective cohorts between September 29, 1948, and December 31, 2018. Complete information on history of hypertension and baseline blood pressure measurements were required for inclusion. We excluded individuals younger than 18 years old, those with a history of hypertension, and patients with baseline SBP measurements of less than 90 mm Hg or 140 mm Hg or higher. Cox proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic spline models were used to evaluate the hazards of cardiovascular outcomes.

A total of 31,033 participants were included. The mean ± SD age was 45.3±14.8 years, 16,693 of the participants (53.8%) were female, and the mean ± SD SBP was 115.8±11.7. Over a median follow-up of 23.5 years, 7005 cardiovascular events occurred. Compared with those who had SBP levels of 90 to 99 mm Hg, participants with SBP levels of 100 to 109, 110 to 119, 120 to 129, and 130 to 139 mm Hg experienced 23% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.42), 53% (HR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.33 to 1.76), 87% (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.62 to 2.16), and 117% (HR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.87 to 2.52) increased risks of cardiovascular events, respectively. Compared with follow-up SBP of 90 to 99 mm Hg, the HRs for cardiovascular events were 1.25 (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.54), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.58 to 2.34), 2.55 (95% CI, 2.09 to 3.10), and 3.39 (95% CI, 2.78 to 4.14), respectively, for follow-up SBP levels of 100 to 109, 110 to 119, 120 to 129, and 130 to 139 mm Hg.

In adults without hypertension, there is a stepwise increase in risk of cardiovascular events, with increasing SBP starting at levels as low as 90 mm Hg.