Quantitative risk assessment of college campus considering risk interactions

Area of Science:

• Campus safety
• Risk assessment
• Higher education security

Background:

• Emerging risks and complex interactions necessitate advanced campus risk assessment.
• Existing research often overlooks the interplay between different risk factors on college campuses.
• A comprehensive approach is needed to address multifaceted campus risks effectively.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop an integrated model for assessing comprehensive campus risks.
• To identify key risk factors and their interactions.
• To propose effective risk reduction strategies for college campuses.

Main Methods:

• Integrated modified egg model and fault tree for risk identification.
• Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) to quantify risk interactions.
• Bayesian network for cause diagnosis, consequence prediction, and risk reduction strategy analysis.

Main Results:

• Alcohol use identified as the most sensitive risk cause.
• Simultaneous occurrence of four sensitive causes increases high campus risk probability from 21.9% to 39.4%.
• Analysis identified the most efficient risk reduction strategies.

Conclusions:

• The proposed integrated methodology offers significant advancements for campus risk reduction.
• Understanding and managing risk interactions is crucial for enhancing campus safety.
• The model provides a framework for proactive risk management in higher education settings.