Social copying drives a tipping point for nonlinear population collapse

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Population Dynamics
• Behavioral Ecology

Background:

• Sudden population changes are common in ecological systems, often exacerbated by global change.
• Studying these dynamics is challenging due to data scarcity and complex population responses.
• Understanding population resilience to perturbations is critical.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the drivers of sudden population changes using long-term demographic data.
• To model population fluctuations and identify feedback mechanisms influencing population collapse.
• To explore the role of social behavior in population dynamics.

Main Methods:

• Applied artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to fit dynamical models.
• Analyzed 40 years of population fluctuation data from a social bird species.
• Investigated nonlinear functions to describe social copying and dispersal feedback.

Main Results:

• Identified social copying as a key feedback mechanism driving population collapse.
• Demonstrated a behavioral cascade where initial dispersal triggers widespread emigration.
• Observed a tipping point for runaway dispersal once patch quality deteriorates.
• Noted decreased dispersal at low densities due to philopatry.

Conclusions:

• Social copying in dispersal can lead to population collapse in social organisms.
• Findings have implications for understanding metapopulation dynamics and extinction risks.
• Highlights the importance of considering behavioral feedback loops in conservation and management of social species.