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Updated: Aug 7, 2025

Estimating Bilateral Atrial Function by Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Feature Tracking in Patients with Paroxysmal Atrial Fibrillation
Published on: July 20, 2022
An artificial intelligence-based model for prediction of atrial fibrillation from single-lead sinus rhythm
Tove Hygrell1, Fredrik Viberg1, Erik Dahlberg2
1Department of Clinical Sciences, Karolinska Institutet, Danderyd University Hospital, Stockholm SE-182 88, Sweden.
Insights
An artificial intelligence network can predict atrial fibrillation (AF) from a normal sinus rhythm ECG. This AI approach shows improved accuracy with a wider patient age range for detecting paroxysmal AF.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Artificial Intelligence
- Medical Diagnostics
Background:
- Screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) is recommended by guidelines, but its paroxysmal nature complicates detection.
- Prolonged heart rhythm monitoring increases yield but is costly and inconvenient.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the accuracy of an artificial intelligence (AI)-based network in predicting paroxysmal AF from a single-lead ECG showing normal sinus rhythm.
Main Methods:
- A convolutional neural network was trained and validated on 478,963 single-lead ECGs from 14,831 patients aged 65+ years across three studies.
- The AI model's predictive performance for paroxysmal AF was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).
Main Results:
- The AI algorithm predicted paroxysmal AF from a single ECG with an AUC of 0.80 (CI 0.78-0.83) in a study with a wide age range (65-90+ years).
- Performance was lower in age-homogenous groups (75-76 years), with AUCs of 0.62 in two separate studies.
Conclusions:
- An AI-enabled network can predict AF from a sinus rhythm ECG.
- The AI's predictive accuracy for AF is enhanced when applied to populations with a broader age distribution.
Aims:
Screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) is recommended in the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. Yields of detection can be low due to the paroxysmal nature of the disease. Prolonged heart rhythm monitoring might be needed to increase yield but can be cumbersome and expensive. The aim of this study was to observe the accuracy of an artificial intelligence (AI)-based network to predict paroxysmal AF from a normal sinus rhythm single-lead ECG.
Methods And Results:
A convolutional neural network model was trained and evaluated using data from three AF screening studies. A total of 478 963 single-lead ECGs from 14 831 patients aged ≥65 years were included in the analysis. The training set included ECGs from 80% of participants in SAFER and STROKESTOP II. The remaining ECGs from 20% of participants in SAFER and STROKESTOP II together with all participants in STROKESTOP I were included in the test set. The accuracy was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). From a single timepoint ECG, the artificial intelligence-based algorithm predicted paroxysmal AF in the SAFER study with an AUC of 0.80 [confidence interval (CI) 0.78-0.83], which had a wide age range of 65-90+ years. Performance was lower in the age-homogenous groups in STROKESTOP I and STROKESTOP II (age range: 75-76 years), with AUCs of 0.62 (CI 0.61-0.64) and 0.62 (CI 0.58-0.65), respectively.
Conclusion:
An artificial intelligence-enabled network has the ability to predict AF from a sinus rhythm single-lead ECG. Performance improves with a wider age distribution.
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