Back to the future: Are we trapped in our past?

Area of Science:

• Evaluation Theory
• Foresight Studies
• Transdisciplinarity

Background:

• Traditional theories of change often rely on past trends.
• The complexity of the modern world necessitates new evaluation approaches.
• Assumptions underpin the design and effectiveness of evaluation frameworks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the integration of foresight methodologies into theories of change.
• To highlight the significance of anticipatory assumptions in evaluation design.
• To advocate for a more inclusive and imaginative approach to evaluation.

Main Methods:

• Conceptual analysis of foresight and evaluation theory.
• Exploration of transdisciplinary knowledge integration.
• Reflection on the role of imagination in future-oriented evaluation.

Main Results:

• Foresight offers a lens to critically examine assumptions in theories of change.
• Anticipatory assumptions are vital for developing relevant and robust evaluation designs.
• A transdisciplinary approach enriches evaluation by incorporating diverse knowledge systems.

Conclusions:

• Evaluators must adopt foresight to move beyond assumptions of continuity.
• Imagination and anticipatory thinking are essential for effective evaluation in discontinuous futures.
• Transdisciplinary collaboration enhances the adaptability and relevance of theories of change.