Vaccination and Voting Patterns in the U.S.: Analysis of COVID-19 and Flu Surveys From 2010 to 2022

The study assessed the relationship between COVID-19 and influenza (flu) vaccination and voting patterns during the pandemic and the time trends between flu vaccination and voting patterns.

Flu and COVID-19 vaccination coverage were analyzed using National Immunization Surveys for flu (Years 2010-2022) and COVID-19 (National Immunization Surveys Adult COVID-19 Module 2021-2022), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance of COVID-19 vaccination coverage (2021-2022) and U.S. COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (2021-2022). The study described the correlations between state-level COVID-19 and flu vaccination coverage, examined individual-level characteristics of vaccination for COVID-19 and for flu using logistic regression (COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey May-June 2022), and analyzed flu vaccination coverage by age (National Immunization Surveys for flu 2010-2022) and its relationship with voting patterns.

There was a strong correlation between state-level COVID-19 vaccination coverage and voting share for the Democratic candidate in the 2020 presidential elections. COVID-19 vaccination coverage in June 2022 was higher than flu vaccination coverage, and it had a stronger correlation with voting patterns (R=0.90 vs R=0.60 in COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey). Vaccinated people were more likely to be living in a county where the majority voted for the Democratic candidate in 2020 elections both for COVID-19 (adjusted OR=1.77, 95% CI=1.71, 1.84) and for flu (adjusted OR=1.27, 95% CI=1.23, 1.31). There is a longstanding correlation between voting patterns and flu vaccination coverage, which varies by age, with the strongest correlation in the youngest ages.

There are existing prepandemic patterns between vaccination coverage and voting patterns. The findings align with research that has identified an association between adverse health outcomes and the political environment in the U.S.