Development and validation of a coagulation-related genes prognostic model for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has a high incidence and mortality worldwide, which seriously threatens people's physical and mental health. Coagulation is closely related to the occurrence and development of HCC. Whether coagulation-related genes (CRGs) can be used as prognostic markers for HCC remains to be investigated.

Firstly, we identified differentially expressed coagulation-related genes of HCC and control samples in the datasets GSE54236, GSE102079, TCGA-LIHC, and Genecards database. Then, univariate Cox regression analysis, LASSO regression analysis, and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to determine the key CRGs and establish the coagulation-related risk score (CRRS) prognostic model in the TCGA-LIHC dataset. The predictive capability of the CRRS model was evaluated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and ROC analysis. External validation was performed in the ICGC-LIRI-JP dataset. Besides, combining risk score and age, gender, grade, and stage, a nomogram was constructed to quantify the survival probability. We further analyzed the correlation between risk score and functional enrichment, pathway, and tumor immune microenvironment.

We identified 5 key CRGs (FLVCR1, CENPE, LCAT, CYP2C9, and NQO1) and constructed the CRRS prognostic model. The overall survival (OS) of the high-risk group was shorter than that of the low-risk group. The AUC values for 1 -, 3 -, and 5-year OS in the TCGA dataset were 0.769, 0.691, and 0.674, respectively. The Cox analysis showed that CRRS was an independent prognostic factor for HCC. A nomogram established with risk score, age, gender, grade, and stage, has a better prognostic value for HCC patients. In the high-risk group, CD4⁺T cells memory resting, NK cells activated, and B cells naive were significantly lower. The expression levels of immune checkpoint genes in the high-risk group were generally higher than that in the low-risk group.

The CRRS model has reliable predictive value for the prognosis of HCC patients.