Predicting wildfire ignition induced by dynamic conductor swaying under strong winds.

Area of Science:

• Electrical Engineering
• Wildfire Science
• Risk Analysis

Background:

• Utility-related wildfires are often caused by electric power systems, particularly conductor-vegetation contact during high winds.
• Accurate wildfire risk assessment is critical for operational decisions like vegetation management and power shutoffs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the ignition mechanism of wildfires caused by transmission conductor swaying into nearby vegetation, leading to flashover.
• To develop a methodology for accurate and efficient prediction of ignition probability.

Main Methods:

• Stochastic characteristics of multi-span transmission line dynamic displacement were analyzed in the frequency domain.
• Encroachment probability was estimated by solving a first-excursion problem, considering random wind buffeting.

Main Results:

• Dynamic displacement due to wind buffeting significantly impacts ignition risk, contrary to static-equivalent models.
• Ignition risk is highly sensitive to vegetation clearance, wind intensity, and forecast duration of wind events.

Conclusions:

• Neglecting the dynamic component of conductor sway leads to erroneous ignition risk estimations.
• The proposed method provides a pathway for improved wildfire ignition probability prediction, crucial for risk management.