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Updated: Aug 7, 2025

Trajectory Data Analyses for Pedestrian Space-time Activity Study
Published on: February 25, 2013
Space-time trends of community-onset Staphylococcus aureus infections in children: a group-based trajectory modeling
Lilly Cheng Immergluck1, Ruijin Geng1, Chaohua Li2
1Clinical Research Center - Pediatric Clinical & Translational Research Unit, Atlanta, GA; Morehouse School of Medicine, Department of Microbiology/Biochemistry/Immunology, Atlanta, GA.
Purpose:
Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) remains a serious cause of infections in the United States and worldwide. In the United States, methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) is the leading cause of skin and soft tissue infections. This study identifies 'best' to 'worst' infection trends from 2002 to 2016, using group-based trajectory modeling approach.
Methods:
Electronic health records of children living in the southeastern United States with S. aureus infections from 2002 to 2016 were retrospectively studied, by applying a group-based trajectory model to estimate infection trends (low, high, very high), and then assess spatial significance of these trends at the census tract level; we focused on community-onset infections and not those considered healthcare acquired.
Results:
Three methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) infection trends (low, high, very high) and three MRSA trends (low, high, very high) were identified from 2002 to 2016. Among census tracts with community-onset S. aureus cases, 29% of tracts belonged to the best trend (low infection) for both methicillin-resistant S. aureus and methicillin-susceptible S. aureus; higher proportions occurring in the less densely populated areas. Race disparities were seen with the worst methicillin-resistant S. aureus infection trends and were more often in urban areas.
Conclusions:
Group-based trajectory modeling identified unique trends of S. aureus infection rates over time and space, giving insight into the associated population characteristics which reflect these trends of community-onset infection.
Insights
Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) infection trends from 2002-2016 show distinct spatial patterns. Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) disparities were observed, particularly in urban areas, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.
Area of Science:
- Infectious Diseases
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) is a significant global pathogen.
- Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) is a primary cause of skin and soft tissue infections in the U.S.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and analyze S. aureus infection trends from 2002 to 2016.
- To assess the spatial distribution of these trends using group-based trajectory modeling.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective analysis of electronic health records for pediatric S. aureus infections in the southeastern U.S. (2002-2016).
- Application of group-based trajectory modeling to define low, high, and very high infection trends.
- Spatial significance assessment at the census tract level, focusing on community-onset infections.
Main Results:
- Identified three distinct trends (low, high, very high) for both methicillin-susceptible S. aureus (MSSA) and MRSA infections.
- 29% of census tracts exhibited the best (low infection) trend for both MSSA and MRSA, more prevalent in less populated areas.
- Significant racial disparities were noted in the worst MRSA infection trends, predominantly in urban settings.
Conclusions:
- Group-based trajectory modeling effectively revealed spatio-temporal trends in S. aureus infections.
- The findings provide insights into population characteristics associated with community-onset S. aureus infection trends.
- Identified disparities underscore the need for geographically targeted public health strategies.
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