Simple but not simplistic: Findings from a theory-driven retrospective evaluation of a small projects program

Area of Science:

• Program Evaluation
• International Development
• Causal Inference

Background:

• The US Peace Corps/Georgia Small Projects Assistance (SPA) Program supported 270 small projects from 2010-2019.
• A retrospective evaluation was commissioned to assess project success and identify areas for improvement.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the degree of success of SPA Program projects over ten years.
• To determine the extent to which outcomes were attributable to SPA Program interventions.
• To identify improvements for increasing the success of future projects.

Main Methods:

• Developed a performance rubric to define project success criteria.
• Employed qualitative comparative analysis to identify conditions leading to success or failure.
• Utilized causal process tracing to understand how identified conditions led to outcomes.

Main Results:

• Thirty-one percent of projects were categorized as successful.
• A causal package of five conditions was found sufficient for project success, with specific sequential and simultaneous relationships.
• A simpler causal package of two conditions was sufficient for project failure.

Conclusions:

• Project success was uncommon due to the complex combination of necessary conditions.
• Project failure was more frequent and less complex.
• Focusing on the identified five-condition causal package during project design and implementation can enhance success rates.