Facing the challenges of air quality and health in a future climate: The Aveiro Region case study

Air pollution and climate change are the most important environmental issues for European citizens. Despite the air quality improvements achieved in recent years, with most pollutants' concentrations below the European Union legislated values, it is necessary to understand whether this will continue in the future due to expected climate changes impacts. In this context, this work tries to answer two main questions: (i) What is the relative contribution of emission source regions/activities to air quality, now and in the future, considering a climate change scenario?; and (ii) What additional policies are needed to support win-win strategies for air quality and climate mitigation and/or adaptation, at urban scale? For that, a climate and air quality modelling system, with source apportionment tools, was applied to the Aveiro Region, in Portugal. Main results show that in the future, due to the implementation of carbon neutrality measures, air quality in the Aveiro Region may improve, with reduction up to 4 μg.m^-3 for particulate matter (PM) concentrations and 22 μg.m^-3 for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and consequently, the premature deaths due to air pollution exposure will also decrease. The expected air quality improvement will ensure that, in the future, the limit values of the European Union (EU) Air Quality Directive will not be exceeded, but the same will not happen if the proposed revision of the EU Air Quality Directive is approved. Results also shown that, in the future, industrial sector will be the one with higher relative contribution for PM concentrations and the second one for NO₂. For that sector, additional emission abatement measures were tested, showing that, in the future, it is possible to comply with all the new limit values proposed by the EU.