Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity

Area of Science:

• Conservation Biology
• Climate Change Ecology
• Biodiversity

Background:

• Climate change adaptation strategies increasingly rely on refugia-based conservation.
• Protected areas (PAs) are crucial for safeguarding biodiversity against climate change.
• Identifying climate change refugia is essential for effective conservation planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammal species in South America.
• To quantify the extent to which protected areas encompass these identified refugia.
• To evaluate the conservation status of climate change refugia across South America.

Main Methods:

• Species distribution modeling was employed to predict potential mammal distributions under future climate scenarios.
• Climate change refugia were identified as areas retaining suitable climatic conditions by 2090.
• The proportion of identified refugia located within existing protected areas was quantified.

Main Results:

• Moist tropical forests in high-elevation, topographically complex areas harbored the highest diversity of mammal refugia.
• Andean-Amazon forests contained refugia for over half of the continental mammal species studied.
• A significant portion of identified refugia, particularly in the Atlantic Forest, were outside protected areas, leaving many species vulnerable.

Conclusions:

• Current protected areas offer inadequate coverage for critical climate change refugia for South American mammals.
• A substantial number of species lack protected refugia, necessitating urgent conservation action.
• Targeted protection of high-elevation, remote refugia may offer a cost-effective conservation strategy.