A logarithmic model for hormone receptor-positive and breast cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy

The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive importance of the previously validated log(ER)*log(PgR)/Ki-67 predictive model in a larger patient population.

Patients with hormone receptor positive/HER-2 negative and clinical node positive before chemotherapy were included. Log(ER)*log(PgR)/Ki-67 values of the patients were determined, and the ideal cutoff value was calculated using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. It was analyzed with a logistic regression model along with other clinical and pathological characteristics.

A total of 181 patients were included in the study. The ideal cutoff value for pathological response was 0.12 (area under the curve=0.585, p=0.032). In the univariate analysis, no statistical correlation was observed between luminal subtype (p=0.294), histological type (p=0.238), clinical t-stage (p=0.927), progesterone receptor level (p=0.261), Ki-67 cutoff value (p=0.425), and pathological complete response. There was a positive relationship between numerical increase in age and residual disease. As the grade of the patients increased, the probability of residual disease decreased. Patients with log(ER)*log(PgR)/Ki-67 above 0.12 had an approximately threefold increased risk of residual disease when compared to patients with 0.12 and below (odds ratio: 3.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.48-6.75, p=0.003). When age, grade, and logarithmic formula were assessed together, the logarithmic formula maintained its statistical significance (odds ratio: 2.47, 95% confidence interval: 1.07-5.69, p=0.034).

In hormone receptor-positive breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy, the logarithmic model has been shown in a larger patient population to be an inexpensive, easy, and rapidly applicable predictive marker that can be used to predict response.