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Regime shift in Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness
Hiroshi Sumata1, Laura de Steur2, Dmitry V Divine2
1Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway. hiroshi.sumata@npolar.no.
The Arctic sea ice regime shifted in 2007 from thick to thin ice, a change linked to reduced sea ice residence time. This long-lasting impact of climate change on Arctic sea ice highlights critical ocean-sea ice processes.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Oceanography
- Cryosphere studies
Background:
- Climate change impacts are often gradual, but climate systems can exhibit abrupt shifts.
- Arctic sea ice is a critical component of the global climate system.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify and analyze a stepwise regime shift in Arctic sea ice.
- To investigate the role of sea ice residence time in observed changes.
Main Methods:
- Continuous sea ice monitoring in Fram Strait over three decades.
- Analysis of sea ice thickness and deformation data.
- Modeling of dynamic sea ice thickening processes.
Main Results:
- A significant regime shift in Arctic sea ice occurred in 2007, transitioning from thick, deformed ice to thinner, uniform ice.
- The fraction of thick, deformed ice was halved post-shift and has not recovered.
- The shift was preceded by a two-step reduction in Arctic sea ice residence time in 2005 and 2007.
Conclusions:
- The observed Arctic sea ice thinning is explained by reduced sea ice residence time.
- Climate change has a lasting impact on Arctic sea ice dynamics.
- The findings underscore the connection between Arctic sea ice changes and coupled ocean-sea ice processes.
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