Quantifying diurnal changes in NO₂ due to COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in New York City

Policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the NY on Pause stay-at-home order (March 22 - June 8, 2020), substantially reduced traffic and traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) in New York City (NYC). We evaluated the magnitude of TRAP decreases and examined the role of modifying factors such as weekend/weekday, road proximity, location, and time-of-day.

Hourly nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) concentrations from January 1, 2018 through June 8, 2020 were obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System for all six hourly monitors in the NYC area. We used an interrupted time series design to determine the impact of NY on Pause on NO₂ concentrations, using a mixed effects model with random intercepts for monitor location, adjusted for meteorology and long-term trends. We evaluated effect modification through stratification.

NO₂ concentrations decreased during NY on Pause by 19% (-3.2 ppb, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.5, -3.0), on average, compared to pre-Pause time trends. We found no evidence for modification by weekend/weekday, but greater decreases in NO₂ at non-roadside monitors and weak evidence for modification by location. For time-of-day, we found the largest decreases for 5 am (27%, -4.5 ppb, 95% CI: -5.7, -3.3) through 7 am (24%, -4.0 ppb, 95% CI: -5.2, -2.8), followed by 6 pm and 7 pm (22%, -3.7 ppb, 95% CI: -4.8, -2.6 and 22%, -4.8, -2.5, respectively), while the smallest decreases occurred at 11 pm and 1 am (both: 11%, -1.9 ppb, 95% CI: -3.1, -0.7).

NY on Pause's impact on TRAP varied greatly diurnally. Decreases during early morning and evening time periods are likely due to decreases in traffic. Our results may be useful for planning traffic policies that vary by time of day, such as congestion tolling policies.