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Author Spotlight: Advancements in Multiplex Detection of Respiratory Viruses
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Anticipating the transmissibility of the 2022 mpox outbreak

Tuoyu Liu1, Shan Yang1, Boyu Luo1

  • 1State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, China.

Journal of Medical Virology
|March 17, 2023
PubMed

Insights

The 2022 monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak showed a basic reproduction number (R0) between 2.32 and 2.88, indicating rapid global spread. MPXV R0 values approach those of smallpox, highlighting epidemic potential.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Computational Biology

Background:

  • The 2022 monkeypox virus (MPXV) outbreak emerged globally in May 2022.
  • Over 80,000 cases were confirmed across 110+ countries by November 2022.
  • Understanding MPXV transmission dynamics is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate key epidemiological parameters of the 2022 MPXV outbreak.
  • To estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) using deep learning models.
  • To compare MPXV R0 with historical smallpox data.

Main Methods:

  • Applied a deep learning approach utilizing convolutional neural networks.
  • Analyzed MPXV case data from the United Kingdom, Spain, and Germany (May-June 2022).
  • Estimated the basic reproduction number (R0), incubation period, and infectious period.

Main Results:

  • MPXV R0 estimates were 2.32 (UK), 2.42 (Spain), and 2.88 (Germany).
  • MPXV R0 values are approaching those of smallpox (3.50-6.00).
  • Predicted incubation period of 9-10 days and infectious period of 4-5 days.

Conclusions:

  • The estimated R0 indicates active MPXV diffusion and potential for rapid worldwide spread.
  • Findings provide critical insights for MPXV epidemic prevention and control strategies.
  • The study underscores the importance of ongoing surveillance and containment measures.
Keywords:
R0epidemicmpoxoutbreaktransmissibility

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