Prediction of Renal Function 1 Year After Transplantation Using Machine Learning Methods Based on Ultrasound...

Kidney transplantation is the most effective treatment for advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). If the prognosis of transplantation can be predicted early after transplantation, it might improve the long-term survival of patients with transplanted kidneys. Currently, studies on the assessment and prediction of renal function by radiomics are limited. Therefore, the present study aimed to explore the value of ultrasound (US)-based imaging and radiomics features, combined with clinical features to develop and validate the models for predicting transplanted kidney function after 1 year (TKF-1Y) using different machine learning algorithms. A total of 189 patients were included and classified into the abnormal TKF-1Y group, and the normal TKF-1Y group based on their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels 1 year after transplantation. The radiomics features were derived from the US images of each case. Three machine learning methods were employed to establish different models for predicting TKF-1Y using selected clinical and US imaging as well as radiomics features from the training set. Two US imaging, four clinical, and six radiomics features were selected. Then, the clinical (including clinical and US image features), radiomics, and combined models were developed. The area under the curves (AUCs) of the models was 0.62 to 0.82 within the test set. Combined models showed statistically higher AUCs than the radiomics models (all p-values <.05). The prediction performance of different models was not significantly affected by the different machine learning algorithms (all p-values >.05). In conclusion, US imaging features combined with clinical features could predict TKF-1Y and yield an incremental value over radiomics features. A model integrating all available features may further improve the predictive efficacy. Different machine learning algorithms may not have a significant impact on the predictive performance of the model.