Open Abdomen in Elderly Patients With Surgical Sepsis: Predictors of Mortality

Elderly patients are frequently presenting with emergency surgical conditions. The open abdomen technique is widely used in abdominal emergencies needing rapid control of intrabdominal contamination. However, specific predictors of mortality identifying candidates for comfort care are understudied.

The 2013-2017 the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database was queried for emergent laparotomies performed in geriatric patients with sepsis or septic shock in whom fascial closure was delayed. Patients with acute mesenteric ischemia were excluded. The primary outcome was 30-d mortality. Univariable analysis, followed by multivariable logistic regression, was performed. Mortality was computed for combinations of the five predictors with the highest odds ratios (OR).

A total of 1399 patients were identified. The median age was 73 (69-79) y, and 54.7% were female. 30-d mortality was 50.6%. In the multivariable analysis, the most important predictors were as follows: American Society of Anesthesiologists status 5 (OR = 4.80, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.85-12.49 P = 0.002), dialysis dependence (OR = 2.65, 95% CI 1.54-4.57, P < 0.001), congestive hearth failure (OR = 2.53, 95% CI 1.52-4.21, P < 0.001), disseminated cancer (OR = 2.61, 95% CI 1.55-4.38, P < 0.001), and preoperative platelet count of <100,000 cells/μL (OR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.15-3.04, P = 0.011). The presence of two or more of these factors resulted in over 80% mortality. The absence of all these risk factors results in a survival rate of 62.1%.

In elderly patients, surgical sepsis or septic shock requiring an open abdomen for surgical management is highly lethal. The presence of several combinations of preoperative comorbidities is associated with a poor prognosis and can identify patients who can benefit from timely initiation of palliative care.