Nomograms for predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival in patients with invasive micropapillary...

Invasive micropapillary carcinoma (IMPC) is a rare subtype of breast cancer that lacks a prognostic prediction model. Its treatment and prognostic factors remain controversial. Our study aimed to develop nomograms to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in IMPC patients.

A total of 2149 patients confirmed to have IMPC between 2003 and 2018 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. They were divided into training and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify significant independent prognostic factors. The nomograms were used to predict 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The training and validation cohorts were used to verify the nomograms internally and externally. The predictive capability of the nomograms was evaluated by the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) curve.

In the study, 2149 IMPC patients were randomized to a training group (n = 1611) and a validation group (n = 538). Age, T stage, N stage, ER, radiotherapy, and surgery were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS and CSS. These variables were selected to construct nomograms for IMPC. The C-index (0.768 for OS and 0.811 for CSS) and the time-dependent AUC (>0.7) indicated satisfactory discriminative ability of the nomograms. Additionally, DCA showed that the nomograms had higher clinical value than traditional TNM tumor staging.

The models can accurately predict the prognosis of IMPC patients and can aid in providing individualized treatment for patients.