Canadian Pediatric Surgeon Workforce: Characterization of Training, Trends Over Time, and 10-year Model for Pediatric...

Graduate and fellowship training trends for Canadian pediatric surgeons remain uncharacterized. Similarly, updated workforce planning for pediatric surgeons is required. We aimed to characterize graduate degree and fellowship trends for Canadian pediatric surgeons, with modelling to inform workforce planning.

We performed a cross sectional observational study evaluating Canadian pediatric surgeons in January 2022. Surgeon demographics collected included year of medical degree (MD) conferment, MD location, fellowship location, and graduate degree achievement. Our primary outcome was to evaluate training characteristics over time. Secondary outcomes evaluated surgeon supply and demand from 2021 to 2031. Supply was extrapolated from current Canadian pediatric surgery fellows assuming static fellowship matriculation, while retirement was estimated using a 31-, 36-, or 41-year career following MD conferral.

Of included surgeons (n = 77), 64 (83%) completed fellowship training in Canada and 46 (60%) have graduate degrees. No surgeons graduating ≤1980 hold graduate degrees, compared to 8 (100%) surgeons with MD ≥ 2011 (p < 0.001). Similarly, more surgeons with MD ≥ 2011 appear to have a Canadian MD (n = 7, 87.5%) and Canadian fellowship (n = 8, 100%). Modelling predicts that 19-49 (25%-64%) surgeons will retire between 2021 and 2031, while 37 fellows will graduate with intention to work in Canada, creating between a 12 surgeon deficit up to an 18 surgeon surplus depending on career length.

Trends in graduate degree achievement and fellowship location suggest increasing competition for Canadian pediatric surgery positions. Additionally, a substantial number of Canadian-trained fellows will need positions outside of Canada in the next decade. Overall, results support previous work demonstrating saturation of the Canadian pediatric workforce.

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