The Ukraine war and rising commodity prices: Implications for developing countries

Area of Science:

• Global economics
• Food security studies
• Development economics

Background:

• The Russia-Ukraine war significantly impacts global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices.
• Concerns about global poverty and food insecurity have risen due to the conflict.
• Quantitative analysis of the crisis's impact on developing countries remains limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantitatively assess the near-term impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on agrifood systems, poverty, and food insecurity.
• To analyze these impacts across 19 developing countries.
• To differentiate the effects of food, fuel, and fertilizer price shocks.

Main Methods:

• Utilized national economy-wide models for quantitative analysis.
• Focused on the near-term consequences of the crisis.
• Examined impacts across 19 diverse developing countries.

Main Results:

• The crisis has exacerbated poverty and food insecurity globally.
• An estimated 27.2 million more people are pushed into poverty.
• An estimated 22.3 million more people face hunger, with variations across countries.

Conclusions:

• Agrifood systems and poverty are highly vulnerable to increased fuel and fertilizer prices.
• Hunger and diet quality are more sensitive to elevated food prices.
• The findings underscore the need for targeted interventions to mitigate the crisis's adverse effects on vulnerable populations.