The global COVID-19 vaccine surplus: tackling expiring stockpiles

A global surplus of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines exists as a result of difficulties in aligning the demand and supply for vaccine manufacturing and delivery. World leaders have accelerated vaccine development, approval, production and distribution as a pragmatic approach to addressing the immediate public health challenges of the first two and a half years of the pandemic.

The currently predominant, highly transmissible Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 has brought us closer to the threshold required to achieve herd immunity by greatly increasing rates of natural infection. Paradoxically, in parallel with rising vaccination levels in industrialized nations, this indirectly reduces the need for mass vaccine campaigns. Principal concerns that contribute to low vaccination rates which persist in several other countries, particularly of the Global South, are vaccine hesitancy and unequal access to vaccination. Social uncertainty fueled by fake news, misinformation, unfounded lay opinions and conspiracy theories has inevitably led to an erosion of public trust in vaccination.

To address the current mismatch between supply and demand of COVID-19 vaccines, there should be a focus on three principles: decelerating vaccine production, increasing distribution across communities, and optimizing cost-effectiveness of distribution logistics. Slowing down and switching from large-scale production to effectively 'made to order' is a feasible option, which should be commensurate with management capacity. Transparent and evidence-based data should be widely and freely disseminated to the public through multimedia channels to mitigate miscommunication and conspiracy theories. Use of soon-to-expire stockpiles should be prioritized not only to enhance booster dose rollouts in adults but to expand immunization campaigns to children (especially those aged 5-11 years), subject to national approval. Future research should ideally aim to develop vaccines that only require basic, affordable storage and maintenance procedures as opposed to sophisticated and expensive protocols.