Association of skeletal muscle mass and its change with diabetes occurrence: a population-based cohort study

Low muscle mass likely results in reduced capacity for glucose disposal, leading to a significant but under-appreciated contribution to increasing the risk of diabetes. But few prospective studies have investigated the association between the loss of muscle mass and the occurrence of diabetes. We aimed to investigate whether short-term changes in muscle mass affect the incidence of diabetes in a Chinese population.

This study included 1275 individuals without evident diabetes at baseline. In the baseline and re-examination, individuals completed the risk factors survey and underwent body composition measurement. Muscle mass index was defined as the percentage skeletal muscle mass, which was measured by an automatic bioelectric analyzer.

After a median follow-up of 2.1 years, 142 individuals developed diabetes (11.1%). There was an inverse association between basal skeletal muscle mass index and the risk of diabetes in participants with impaired glucose regulation but not in those with normal glucose tolerance. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for the risk of developing diabetes were 0.85 (95% CI: 0.74-0.98) and 1.15 (95% CI: 0.98-1.34), respectively. Furthermore, Cox regression analysis revealed that a two-year change in skeletal muscle mass was also inversely associated with the incidence of diabetes in both participants with normal glucose tolerance and with impaired glucose regulation (HR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.65-0.89; HR: 0.81, 95% CI: 0.71-0.91).

These findings emphasized the importance of early detection and control of muscle mass loss for the prevention of diabetes.