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Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling.
Thomas J Hladish1,2, Alexander N Pillai1, Carl A B Pearson3,4
1Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA.
Medrxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
|March 22, 2023
Summary
Targeting high-risk individuals for COVID-19 vaccine distribution is most effective at reducing severe outcomes. Age-based targeting also outperforms mass vaccination and ring vaccination strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health Policy
- Computational Biology
Background:
- COVID-19 vaccine distribution strategies significantly impact public health outcomes.
- Understanding the comparative effectiveness of different distribution models is crucial for pandemic response.
Approach:
- An agent-based model simulating human activity and COVID-19 transmission was developed and calibrated using Florida-specific data.
- Four distinct vaccine distribution strategies were evaluated under varying vaccine availability scenarios.
Key Points:
- Actively targeting individuals at high risk for severe disease proved most effective in reducing hospitalizations and deaths across all scenarios.
- Ring vaccination, while effective for infection control, was less successful in preventing mortality.
- Using age as a proxy for disease risk outperformed mass vaccination and ring vaccination.
Conclusions:
- Vaccine distribution strategies prioritizing high-risk groups offer the greatest benefit for severe outcome reduction.
- The relative effectiveness of strategies can vary with disease variant emergence and assessment timing, but high-risk targeting remains superior for preventing severe outcomes.
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