Influence of upwelling on coral reef benthic communities: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Highly competitive coral reef benthic communities are acutely sensitive to changes in environmental parameters such as temperature and nutrient concentrations. Physical oceanographic processes that induce upwelling therefore act as drivers of community structure on tropical reefs. How upwelling impacts coral communities, however, is not fully understood; upwelling may provide a natural buffer against climate impacts and could potentially enhance the efficacy of spatial management and reef conservation efforts. This study employed a systematic review to assess existing literature linking upwelling with reef community structure, and a meta-analysis to quantify upwelling impact on the percentage cover of coral reef benthic groups. We show that upwelling has context-dependant effects on the cover of hard coral and fleshy macroalgae, with effect size and direction varying with depth, region and remoteness. Fleshy macroalgae were found to increase by 110% on inhabited reefs yet decrease by 56% around one well-studied remote island in response to upwelling. Hard coral cover was not significantly impacted by upwelling on inhabited reefs but increased by 150% when direct local human pressures were absent. By synthesizing existing evidence, this review facilitates adaptive and nuanced reef management which considers the influence of upwelling on reef assemblages.