A metric-based framework for climate-smart conservation planning

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Conservation Biology
• Climate Change Science

Background:

• Climate change significantly impacts biodiversity, yet adaptation strategies are not fully integrated into conservation planning tools like protected areas.
• A key challenge is the lack of consensus on incorporating climate change impacts into spatial conservation plans.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a climate-smart framework for conservation planning that prioritizes climate refugia.
• To explore the influence of climate model ensembles, emission scenarios, climate metrics, and refugia identification methods on spatial plans.

Main Methods:

• Developed a climate-smart framework using climate metrics to identify climate refugia (areas with low climate exposure and high biodiversity retention).
• Evaluated four key aspects: climate model ensembles, multiple emission scenarios, climate metrics, and refugia identification approaches.
• Applied the framework to the Western Pacific Ocean, with applicability to terrestrial systems.

Main Results:

• All explored aspects of climate-smart planning influenced the configuration of spatial conservation plans.
• The choice of climate metrics and refugia identification methods had a substantial impact on plan outcomes.
• Climate model ensembles and emission scenarios had a lesser effect on spatial plan configurations.

Conclusions:

• Spatial plans must consider multiple climate metrics to ensure robustness against various climate change impacts (e.g., warming, ocean acidification).
• Using multiple climate models and emission scenarios is recommended to account for uncertainties in future climate projections.
• The selection of refugia identification approaches involves trade-offs between climate-smartness and conservation efficiency, depending on stakeholder priorities.