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A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
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Seasonality in General Surgery Hospitalizations and Procedures in the US: Workflow Implications
Artem Shmelev1, Klara Schwarzova2, Steven Clark Cunningham2
1Department of Surgery, Columbia University Medical Center, New York, New York.
The Journal of Surgical Research
|March 22, 2023
Summary
General surgery procedural volume shows seasonal patterns, with emergent cases more affected than elective ones. Understanding these annual trends is key for surgical staffing and resource planning.
Area of Science:
- Medicine
- Surgery
- Public Health
Background:
- Seasonality's impact on general surgery procedural volume is not well understood.
- Existing literature often lacks advanced seasonal-trend decomposition analyses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate seasonal variations in general surgery procedural volume.
- To analyze trends using seasonal-trend decomposition.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the National Inpatient Sample (NIS) from 2002-2014.
- Calculated monthly hospitalization rates for general surgery procedures.
- Performed seasonal-trend decomposition analysis.
Main Results:
- Emergent admissions exhibited more significant seasonality than elective admissions.
- Overall inpatient surgical procedural volume was stable, with a dip in Q3.
- Procedures for acute intra-abdominal conditions and trauma peaked in summer; endoscopies, tracheostomies, and gastrostomies peaked in winter.
Conclusions:
- Many general surgery procedures follow circannual patterns.
- Surgical demand is high year-round, except during holidays.
- Recognizing seasonal variations aids in staffing and resource allocation.
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