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Appraisal of modifiable hospitalization risks.

F Alemi¹, J Stokes, J Rice

¹Department of Health Systems Management, School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, New Orleans, Louisiana.

|July 1, 1987

Summary

Prevention experts assessed hospitalization risks for healthy adults. A developed scoring procedure accurately simulated expert judgments, enabling a computer program to assess individual health risks.

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Area of Science:

Preventive Medicine
Health Risk Assessment
Decision Analysis

Background:

Assessing hospitalization risk is crucial for preventive medicine.
Expert consensus is vital for reliable health risk evaluations.
Previous methods lacked standardized approaches for expert judgment synthesis.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and validate a scoring procedure simulating expert judgments on hospitalization risk.
To create an interactive computer program for assessing modifiable health risks.
To provide a tool for further research on health risk assessment validity and impact.

Main Methods:

Nine prevention experts rated hospitalization risks for 64 hypothetical healthy adults (aged 20-65).
Decision analytic tools modeled the average expert ratings, incorporating factors, relationships, and importance.

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A derived index was correlated with expert judgments to assess simulation accuracy.

Main Results:

Substantial agreement was observed among seven out of nine experts (pairwise correlations 0.66-0.86).
The developed scoring procedure demonstrated high correlation with expert judgments, indicating successful simulation.
The scoring procedure formed the basis of an interactive computer program for individual health risk assessment.

Conclusions:

The developed scoring procedure effectively simulates expert judgments in assessing hospitalization risk.
An interactive computer program can utilize this procedure to assess modifiable health risks.
The program serves as a valuable tool for future research in health risk assessment.