Temporal variation in the association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in 15 German cities

Area of Science:

• Environmental epidemiology
• Public health
• Climate change impacts

Background:

• Limited evidence exists on temporal changes in air temperature's association with cause-specific cardiovascular (CVD) and respiratory (RD) mortality.
• Understanding these temporal variations is crucial for public health interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore temporal variations in the association between short-term air temperature exposure and mortality in Germany.
• To analyze cause-specific CVD and RD mortality risks related to temperature over a 24-year period.

Main Methods:

• Time-stratified time series analysis of mortality data from 15 German cities (1993-2016).
• Poisson regression with distributed lag non-linear models to estimate temperature-mortality associations.
• Multivariate meta-analysis to pool estimates, with separate analyses for different time periods and demographic groups.

Main Results:

• Cold-related relative risk (RR) for CVD mortality increased from 1.04 (1993-2004) to 1.10 (2005-16).
• RD mortality also showed increased cold-related RR over time.
• Males exhibited increasing vulnerability to cold, while females showed increased sensitivity to cold for CVD mortality. Younger age groups (<64) were more vulnerable to cold and heat, and older groups (>65) to cold for CVD mortality.

Conclusions:

• Evidence indicates rising population susceptibility to both heat- and cold-related CVD and RD mortality from 1993 to 2016.
• Climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies are essential to reduce future temperature-related deaths.