Chest computed tomography radiomics to predict the outcome for patients with COVID-19 at an early stage

Early monitoring and intervention for patients with novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) will benefit both patients and the medical system. Chest computed tomography (CT) radiomics provide more information regarding the prognosis of COVID-19.

A total of 833 quantitative features of 157 COVID-19 patients in the hospital were extracted. By filtering unstable features using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator algorithm, a radiomic signature was built to predict the prognosis of COVID-19 pneumonia. The main outcomes were the area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction models for death, clinical stage, and complications. Internal validation was performed using the bootstrapping validation technique.

The AUC of each model demonstrated good predictive accuracy [death, 0.846; stage, 0.918; complication, 0.919; acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), 0.852]. After finding the optimal cut-off for each outcome, the respective accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.854, 0.700, and 0.864 for the prediction of the death of COVID-19 patients; 0.814, 0.949, and 0.732 for the prediction of a higher stage of COVID-19; 0.846, 0.920, and 0.832 for the prediction of complications of COVID-19 patients; and 0.814, 0.818, and 0.814 for ARDS of COVID-19 patients. The AUCs after bootstrapping were 0.846 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.844-0.848] for the death prediction model, 0.919 (95% CI: 0.917-0.922) for the stage prediction model, 0.919 (95% CI: 0.916-0.921) for the complication prediction model, and 0.853 (95% CI: 0.852-0.0.855) for the ARDS prediction model in the internal validation. Based on the decision curve analysis, the radiomics nomogram was clinically significant and useful.

The radiomic signature from the chest CT was significantly associated with the prognosis of COVID-19. A radiomic signature model achieved maximum accuracy in the prognosis prediction. Although our results provide vital insights into the prognosis of COVID-19, they need to be verified by large samples in multiple centers.