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Predict the incidence of Guillain Barré Syndrome and arbovirus infection in Mexico, 2014-2019
Lumumba Arriaga-Nieto1, Porfirio Felipe Hernández-Bautista2, Alfonso Vallejos-Parás1
1Epidemiologic Surveillance Coordination, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social, Mexico City, Mexico.
Abstract:
The Dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and Chikungunya (CHIKV) virus infections have been linked to Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS). GBS has an estimated lethality of 4% to 8%, even with effective treatment. Mexico is considered a hyperendemic country for DENV due to the circulation of four serotypes, and the ZIKV and CHIKV viruses have also been circulating in the country. The objective of this study was to predict the number of GBS cases in relation to the cumulative incidence of ZIKV / DENV / CHIKV in Mexico from 2014 to 2019. A six-year time series ecological study was carried out from GBS cases registered in the Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) Epidemiological Surveillance System (ESS), and DENV, ZIKV and CHIKV estimated cases from cases registered in the epidemiological vector-borne diseases surveillance system. The results shows that the incidence of GBS in Mexico is positively correlated with DENV and ZIKV. For every 1,000 estimated DENV cases, 1.45 GBS cases occurred on average, and for every 1,000 estimated ZIKV cases, 1.93 GBS cases occurred on average. A negative correlation between GBS and CHIKV estimated cases was found. The increase in the incidence of GBS cases in Mexico can be predicted by observing DENV and ZIKV cases through the epidemiological surveillance systems. These results can be useful in public health by providing the opportunity to improve capacities for the prevention of arbovirus diseases and for the timely procurement of supplies for the treatment of GBS.
Insights
Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) cases in Mexico are linked to Dengue (DENV) and Zika (ZIKV) virus infections. Public health can predict GBS by monitoring DENV and ZIKV incidence through surveillance systems.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Neurology
Background:
- Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a serious neurological disorder with a 4-8% lethality rate, even with treatment.
- Mexico faces endemic Dengue virus (DENV) and circulating Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses, increasing GBS risk.
- Understanding the relationship between arbovirus infections and GBS is crucial for public health preparedness.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the incidence of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) based on the cumulative incidence of Dengue (DENV), Zika (ZIKV), and Chikungunya (CHIKV) in Mexico.
- To establish a quantitative relationship between arbovirus infections and GBS cases in Mexico.
- To inform public health strategies for managing arbovirus-related GBS.
Main Methods:
- A six-year ecological time series study (2014-2019) was conducted in Mexico.
- Data on GBS cases were obtained from the Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) Epidemiological Surveillance System (ESS).
- Estimated DENV, ZIKV, and CHIKV cases were sourced from the vector-borne diseases surveillance system.
Main Results:
- A positive correlation was found between GBS incidence and both DENV and ZIKV cases in Mexico.
- An average of 1.45 GBS cases occurred per 1,000 DENV cases, and 1.93 GBS cases per 1,000 ZIKV cases.
- A negative correlation was observed between GBS incidence and CHIKV cases.
Conclusions:
- GBS incidence in Mexico can be predicted by monitoring DENV and ZIKV cases through epidemiological surveillance.
- These findings support enhanced public health capacity for arbovirus disease prevention and GBS treatment supply management.
- Timely surveillance of DENV and ZIKV is essential for proactive GBS management in Mexico.
